Bihar Exit Poll Split: Axis My India Sees Tight Race, CNX Predicts NDA Sweep
Key Exit Poll Numbers
While Axis My India has projected that the NDA may win between 121 and 140 seats, putting it just below the 122-seat majority mark, CNX has forecast a far stronger showing for the ruling alliance with 150–170 seats.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD and Congress, is predicted to secure 98–118 seats according to Axis My India.
Vote Share Projection (Axis My India)
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NDA: 43%
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Mahagathbandhan: 41%
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Jan Suraaj Party: 0–2 seats
The narrow 2% vote share gap suggests a potentially close finish in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, where 122 seats are needed for a majority.
Other Exit Polls
| Pollster | NDA | Mahagathbandhan | Jan Suraaj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Vibe | 125–145 | 95–115 | 0–2 |
| CNX | 150–170 | 70–90 | 0–2 |
| NDTV Poll of Polls | 146 | 92 | 1 |
Most other agencies, including Vote Vibe and CNX, continue to show the NDA comfortably ahead.
Party-Wise Projections (Axis My India)
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RJD: 67–76
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JDU: 56–62
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BJP: 50–56
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Congress: 17–21
Despite possible seat losses for the BJP compared to 2020, the RJD is projected to remain the single-largest party once again.
Summary
Axis My India’s lower-end forecast places the NDA just short of a majority, contrasting sharply with other pollsters that predict a clear win.
Counting on Friday will confirm whether Bihar heads for another close contest or an NDA sweep.